The number of protracted payments and insolvencies was high in 2019, and is expected to increase further in 2020, mainly affecting private-owned producers.

Payment delays and business failures are expected to increase modestly in the coming twelve months, especially in the metal manufacturing segment.

For many businesses both demand and profit margins are expected to deteriorate further, with a moderate rebound expected in H2 of 2020 at the earliest.

The sector benefits from the lift of US import tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminium, with profit margins of steel businesses expected to improve again.

Demand for metals and steel is currently impacted by the slowdown in demand from automotive and reduced investment from other manufacturing industries.

Due to a high level of non-performing assets in the sector banks are now unwilling to provide credit to the industry, causing additional liquidity issues.

Lower demand coupled with decreasing sales prices and higher prices for iron ore have led to deteriorating margins of steel producers and distributors.

Competitive price pressure has led to deteriorationg profit margins for steel producers as well as steel and metals distributors over the past 12 months.

The global economy is losing steam in 2019 and 2020. As the trade war accelerates this, consumer resilience will help avoid recession.

Regaining investors’ trust will be key to Fernández’s success in reinvigorating the Argentinian economy, but it is not the only thing.